Resources

People often ask me "How did you learn how to hack?" The answer: by reading. This page is a collection of the blog posts and other articles that I have accumulated over the years of my journey. Enjoy!

The end of knowledge work has been claimed to be here with AI tooling. Will this mean working fewer hours? Universal basic income? There are many questions about what the world will look like in 5 years. Citadel pulls back the curtain of history to discuss what may happen

The first thing they point out is that improvements in AI technology don't mean adoption. From August of 2024 to November of 2025, despite major improvements in tooling, adoption has barely increased. With this adoption, the risk of displacement declines as the pace of adoption slows. The cost of integrating early is expensive compared to those who come later. There's also a major question of cost. If white-collar work is cheaper than the computer that is required, then the workers will be used.

AI productivity is a supply chain shock. This lowers marginal costs, expands potential output, and increases income. Every major technological advancement, from steam power to electricity to computers, has followed this pattern. The counterargument is that AI replaces people, thereby dramatically lowering costs. In reality, lower prices increase purchasing power and increase consumption. In a world where productivity surges but demand collapses violates basic accounting.

For situations with coordination friction, liability constraints, and trust barriers, AI will be a complement rather than a substitute. Historically, technological revolutions have changed the tasks performed rather than eliminated labor altogether. For negative demand for labor to occur, it would require the total automation of everything. For instance, did Microsoft Office help office workers, or did it make them obsolete?

In 1930, John Maynard Keynes thought that productivity growth would be so great that the workweek would fall to 15 hours. In reality, people work MUCH more. Rising productivity lowers costs and expands the consumption frontier! Leisure increased modestly, but material aspiration expanded far more. Humans' wants are too large for there to be a limit.

Overall, I appreciated the review of the history of productivity increases and its comparison to AI. These waves have offset other issues and kept the economy advancing by %2. Thanks for the perspective.